The average price level for deep frozen French fries has dropped to its lowest level in three years. A significant decline in the sales prices have a positive effect on demand, which has increased for three out of the four EU-4 countries. Especially EU countries have purchased more fries during November 2025.
The average price in October reached a level of €1,206 per tonne in the EU-4 plus Poland. That is the lowest level since November 2022. Belgium has regained its position as the cheapest producer with a price level of €1,135 in October. Germany is the most expensive country with an average sales price of €1,327 per tonne.
Increasing volumes
Belgium, the Netherlands and Germany all saw growth in their exported volume during October 2025. France was the only country, out of the EU-4, that saw a decrease in it’s exported volume. The Belgian export level increased by 14,000 tonnes compared to September, which is a 5.75% increase. Growth in the Dutch volume was 5.2% (7,814 tonnes). Germany saw the smallest increase of 9% (2,198 tonnes). The decline in France amounted to 9.25% (5,731 tonnes).
Compared to the same month last year it is a different picture. Aside from the Netherlands all countries exported less volume, although the increase in the Netherlands was only 0.9%.
Re-export
We have seen large volumes of fries being exported within the EU-4, which are calculated in to the export figures. France and the Netherlands both took in significantly more frozen fries coming from their neighbours. Although the HS-system is set to filter out this re-export, it is highly likely that at least some of this product is being exported again.
Other big European customers for frozen fries are the UK and Spain. Both showed a decrease in volume during October. The Spanish import level decreased by over 12%. However, elsewhere in Europe more fries were purchased, meaning that the total EU volume increased during October. This will also be the side effect of the upcoming festive period during December and retail, QSR and other outlets stocking up on potato products.
Pressure on non-EU markets
Outside of the EU the most important customer, Saudi Arabia, took almost 20% less volume during October. Belgian and Dutch exporters are facing continuing stiff competition from China and India in this country. The lower export volume (3,190 tonnes) was somewhat compensated by bigger exports to the USA and Brazil. The latter purchased over 40% more fries compared to a year ago. Its total exports, over a twelve-month period, are still behind but the EU is regaining market share.
This cannot be said for some other South American destinations. Chile and Colombia both purchased significantly less European fries. Mexico did order 22% more fries, but this is not enough to offset the 33% reduction (4,055 tonnes) that was seen in Colombia.
Positive notes
The increase during October seems short-lived looking at available EU-27 export figures. These show a 6.5% decrease in volume for November. The Middle East and Asia are ordering less European potato products, due to competition on these markets. North America is also taking it slowly. On a brighter note: both Africa and South America purchased more fries during November.
For European exporters, and especially the EU-4, it is of great importance to be competitive again on the world market. Preliminary November-figures show that the average price paid decreased further, which can aid sales as seen during October. Free-buy raw potato prices are currently at their lowest level ever, but potato processors can only minimally profit from this situation.
They started the season with significant contract positions and available volumes greatly increased because of the above-average harvest in Northwestern Europe. Those with small contract positions can now profit, but these companies are few and far between.
Source: DCA Market Intelligence
Cover image: Shutterstock via DCI Market Intelligence