By Lukie Pieterse, Potato News Today
Unpacking IndexBox’s projections on EU frozen potato demand, market value, intra-EU trade and record-high import and export prices
IndexBox has released a new market report on frozen potatoes in the European Union, providing a detailed snapshot of current conditions and a forecast through 2035. The study focuses on frozen potatoes that are prepared or preserved and tracks how consumption, production, trade and prices have evolved across the bloc.
The market is described as steadily expanding, supported by significant intra-EU trade flows – 3.3 million tons of imports and 5.6 million tons of exports in 2024 – and marked by notable increases in both import and export prices in recent years. Romania stands out in the IndexBox analysis as the fastest-growing market in both consumption and import value.
Against this backdrop, the following sections highlight how demand, trade and pricing are reshaping the EU frozen potato sector.
European Union frozen potato market edges higher as demand, trade and prices climb
The European Union’s market for frozen potatoes – prepared or preserved products such as par-fried fries and other frozen items – is expected to continue its gradual expansion over the next decade, according to the IndexBox market report. The analysis points to steady growth in both volumes and values through 2035, underpinned by robust intra-EU trade and rising unit prices.
IndexBox reports that EU consumption of frozen potatoes reached an estimated 3.4 million tons in 2024, with a market value of 4.1 billion US dollars. On current projections, volumes are expected to climb to around 3.7 million tons by 2035, with market value forecast to reach 5.2 billion US dollars in nominal wholesale prices.
Steady, but slowing, growth to 2035
The new report suggests that demand for frozen potatoes in the EU will keep rising, but at a more moderate pace than in recent years. For the period from 2024 to 2035, IndexBox forecasts that market volume will grow at a compound annual rate of about 0.6 percent, while the value of the market is expected to increase at a faster 2.1 percent per year, reflecting higher prices as well as incremental volume growth.
This combination of modest volume expansion and stronger value growth underlines the importance of price dynamics and product mix in the frozen potato category going forward.
Consumption hits new highs, led by Germany, France and the Netherlands
On the consumption side, 2024 marked a new peak in EU frozen potato usage. Volumes grew by 6.5 percent compared with the previous year, continuing an upward trend that has seen consumption increase at an average annual rate of 3.2 percent since 2013.
Germany, France and the Netherlands are the three largest consumers, accounting together for 49 percent of total EU frozen potato consumption in 2024, with 661,000 tons, 572,000 tons and 441,000 tons respectively. A second tier of markets – Italy, Spain, Poland, Ireland, Belgium, Sweden and Romania – contributed a further 33 percent.
In value terms, France, Germany and Italy were the largest markets, with a combined 49 percent share of EU market value in 2024, followed by Spain, Ireland, Poland, Sweden, Romania, Belgium and the Netherlands, which together added another 30 percent.
Per capita consumption data highlight the strength of frozen potatoes in certain countries’ diets. The Netherlands led with around 25 kilograms per person in 2024, followed by Ireland at 22 kilograms and Sweden at 9.7 kilograms per person.
Romania stands out as the fastest-growing market
While the larger Western European economies dominate in absolute size, Romania stands out as the fastest-growing market within the bloc. From 2013 to 2024, Romania recorded a 12.0 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in frozen potato consumption volume and a 16.2 percent CAGR in market value – the highest rates among the main consuming countries.
On the import side, Romania’s purchases of frozen potatoes grew at an average annual rate of 12.1 percent by volume over the same period, with the value of imports increasing even faster at 17.6 percent per year, again outpacing other key importers.
Belgium and the Netherlands anchor EU production
Production of frozen potatoes in the EU reached about 5.7 million tons in 2024, after three consecutive years of growth. That figure represented an 8.6 percent decline from 2023, when output peaked at 6.3 million tons, but the long-term trend since 2013 remains upward, with an average annual growth rate of 3.2 percent in volume.
In value terms, EU frozen potato production was estimated at 7.3 billion US dollars in 2024, down from a 2023 peak of 8.3 billion US dollars. Even so, production value has shown what IndexBox describes as buoyant expansion, boosted in particular by a 35 percent surge in 2023.
Belgium and the Netherlands dominate the production landscape. Together with Germany, they accounted for 84 percent of total EU frozen potato production in 2024: Belgium at 2.5 million tons, the Netherlands at 1.8 million tons and Germany at 573,000 tons. France and Poland made up most of the remainder, contributing another 14 percent. Among the main producers, France posted the fastest production growth over 2013 to 2024, with a 7.5 percent annual increase.
Trade flows remain heavy as imports and exports hit new peaks
The frozen potato sector in the EU is highly trade-integrated. In 2024, imports reached 3.3 million tons, up 3.8 percent year on year and the highest level in the period under review. Since 2013, import volumes have grown at an average annual rate of 3.8 percent, with particularly strong growth of 12 percent in 2021.
In value terms, EU frozen potato imports climbed to 4.9 billion US dollars in 2024, also a new high. Import values have expanded markedly, including a 42 percent jump in 2023 relative to 2022.
France is the largest importer by volume, at 672,000 tons in 2024, followed by Germany (416,000 tons), the Netherlands (342,000 tons), Italy (277,000 tons), Belgium (262,000 tons), Spain (256,000 tons) and Poland (154,000 tons). Ireland (122,000 tons), Romania (95,000 tons) and Sweden (93,000 tons) form a second tier of importers. Together, these markets account for more than 80 percent of total EU import volume.
On the export side, 2024 brought a pullback after several years of growth. Shipments abroad fell by 10.1 percent to 5.6 million tons, following a peak of 6.2 million tons in 2023. Even with this correction, exports have still grown at an average annual rate of 3.6 percent since 2013.
Belgium remains the EU’s export powerhouse, shipping 2.6 million tons of frozen potatoes in 2024 – about 47 percent of total exports. The Netherlands ranked second with 1.686 million tons, followed by France (628,000 tons), Germany (328,000 tons) and Poland (221,000 tons).
In value terms, exports dropped to 8.4 billion US dollars in 2024 after reaching 8.9 billion US dollars in 2023 on the back of a 41 percent year-on-year increase that year. Belgium, the Netherlands and France together accounted for 87 percent of total EU export value in 2024, with Belgium recording the fastest growth in export value over the 2013 to 2024 period, at 9.2 percent per year.
Import and export prices at record levels
Price dynamics are a key feature of the current market picture. The average EU import price for frozen potatoes rose to 1,503 US dollars per ton in 2024, a 3.7 percent increase on the previous year. Between 2013 and 2024, import prices rose at an average annual rate of 3.5 percent, with a particularly sharp 37 percent increase in 2023. Based on IndexBox data, import prices reached record highs in 2024 and are expected to continue rising.
There are large differences between individual markets. Among the top importers, Italy paid the highest average price in 2024 at 1,817 US dollars per ton, while the Netherlands was among the lowest at 1,193 US dollars per ton. Over the review period, Poland posted the fastest import price growth, at 5.1 percent per year.
Export prices show a similar pattern. The average EU export price reached 1,492 US dollars per ton in 2024, up 4.3 percent year on year and 67 percent higher than in 2019. Export prices also surged in 2023, rising by 39 percent in a single year. IndexBox notes that export prices hit record levels in 2024 and are likely to see further growth in the years ahead.
Among major exporters, the Netherlands and Germany achieved higher average export prices in 2024 – 1,583 and 1,548 US dollars per ton respectively – while Belgium and France were somewhat lower at 1,425 and 1,454 US dollars per ton. Poland again recorded the fastest export price growth over the 2013 to 2024 period, with a 4.9 percent annual increase.
About the IndexBox report
The findings are drawn from IndexBox’s report EU – Frozen Potatoes (Prepared Or Preserved) – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights, updated in October 2024. The report covers market volume and value, per capita consumption, production by country, trade flows and price developments, with forecasts through 2035.
According to IndexBox, the report is aimed at manufacturers, distributors, importers, wholesalers, investors and advisors looking to make more data-driven decisions, from diversifying product portfolios and loading unused capacity to optimizing export strategies and supply chains. The analysis combines the work of in-house analysts with an AI-based data platform designed to uncover deeper trends in market data.
Note: All data and forecasts in this article were sourced directly from the IndexBox press release on the EU preserved and frozen potato market.
Author: Lukie Pieterse, Potato News Today
Source: IndexBox. Full news release here