By Lukie Pieterse, Potato News Today

A forward-looking exploration of how climate adaptation, breeding, automation and new markets could reshape Canada’s potato sector by 2040 – and which choices in the 2020s will make the biggest difference.

Canada’s potato sector is standing on a curious threshold. On the one hand, it is delivering record crops and record export value. On the other, it knows the next two decades will be shaped by tougher weather, tighter labour, stricter climate policy, and shifting consumer expectations.

Today, potatoes are Canada’s fifth largest primary agriculture crop after canola, wheat, soybeans and corn, contributing about $2 billion in farm cash receipts and more than $3.6 billion in potato and potato product exports in 2023 / 24. In 2023, growers harvested roughly 5.8 million tonnes across the country, and 2024 marked yet another record production year according to Statistics Canada.

The question is simple but unsettling: if the sector keeps doing what it is doing now, what will Canadian potatoes look like in 2040? And if growers, processors and policymakers choose a different path, how far can they bend the trajectory?

What follows is not fantasy. It is a grounded look at where credible data, climate models, technology pipelines and market trends suggest Canada’s potato industry could be heading by 2040 – and which decisions in the 2020s and 2030s will matter most.

Canada’s potato baseline in the mid-2020s

Any future story has to start with the current map.

According to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s Potato Market Information Review 2023-2024:

• Canada produced about 5.8 million tonnes of potatoes in 2023, with production distributed at roughly 35 % in Atlantic Canada, 21 % in Central Canada and 44 % in the Prairies and British Columbia.
• The main producing provinces by volume were Alberta (24 %), Manitoba (23 %), Prince Edward Island (20 %), New Brunswick (12 %), Quebec (10 %), and Ontario (7 %).
• About 68 % of production was grown for processing, 21 % for the fresh / table market, and 11 % for seed.
• Canada is a net exporter of potatoes and potato products, with the United States by far the dominant market for fresh, seed and frozen fries.

Potatoes already make up more than half of total farm cash receipts in Prince Edward Island and more than one fifth in New Brunswick, while Alberta and Manitoba host some of the largest fry plants in North America. In other words, this is not a side crop. It underpins regional economies, supply chains and rural jobs across the country.

By 2040, that economic footprint could be larger, more diversified and more resilient – or more concentrated and fragile – depending on what happens next.

Climate reality check: what a warmer 2040 might mean

The climate story is already obvious in Canadian potato fields: hotter summers, more intense downpours, longer dry spells and more frequent extremes. Industry reports from recent seasons describe drought stress in parts of the Maritimes, heat spikes and smoke in the Prairies, and highly variable rainfall patterns across central Canada.

Research is now putting harder numbers to those worries:

• A detailed modelling study for Prince Edward Island suggests that, under current farming practices, potato yields could decline by 6–10 % even in low-emission scenarios and by 48–60 % by the 2070s – potentially falling by up to 80 % by the 2090s under high-emission scenarios.
• A recent Canada-wide modelling exercise using three crop models across 59 sites finds that with climate change, slight to moderate yield increases are possible in many regions to around 2050, particularly in drier and more northern areas, but yields tend to stabilize or decline later in the century if warming continues.
• At global scale, modelling work that includes farmer adaptation (changed planting windows and varieties) and CO₂ fertilisation suggests average potato yields could increase by 9–20 % by 2050, making potatoes one of the more climate smart staple crops if adaptation is taken seriously.

For Canada, the picture is mixed.

Cooler northern and high-latitude regions may gain production potential as seasons lengthen. Southern and eastern rain-fed areas like PEI and parts of New Brunswick face growing risk if they remain largely unirrigated and manage soils and varieties as they do today. Adequate adaptation – irrigation expansion, soil health improvements, variety shifts, drainage upgrades and better climate intelligence tools – is not a luxury in this context, it is a survival strategy.

By 2040, it is entirely plausible that:

• Irrigated acreage is significantly higher in vulnerable regions such as PEI and parts of Quebec.
• Climate-risk and yield-stability metrics matter as much as gross yield in determining which varieties survive in commercial rotations.
• Crop insurance and risk-sharing programs are explicitly tied to adoption of certain climate-smart practices.

The climate is changing whether the sector adapts or not. The future competitiveness of Canadian potatoes will hinge on how quickly and how coherently adaptation is scaled.

Breeding and genetics: designing the 2040 potato

Breeding and genetics may be where the 2040 story becomes most interesting.

Canadian and global breeding programs are already leaning into traits such as:

• Tolerance to heat and water stress.
• Resistance to major diseases, including late blight and viruses.
• Improved tuber set, size distribution and internal quality for processing.
• Better dormancy and sprouting behaviour for long-term storage.

Climate-focused modelling work by several research groups all points in the same direction: with adaptation, including changes in varieties and planting windows, yield losses can be avoided and in many cases converted into yield gains.

By 2040, a realistic breeding-driven scenario for Canada could include:

• A much larger share of acreage planted to varieties specifically selected for yield stability under heat spikes and erratic rainfall, not just maximum yield under ideal conditions.
• Storage-oriented traits (reduced bruising, stronger skins, more predictable dormancy) baked into mainstream processing clones so that storages can hold quality with less chemical input and more variable in-cell conditions.
• Wider use of genomic selection tools that shorten breeding cycles and allow breeders to stack multiple traits in a single ideotype suited to specific regions (for example, drought-tolerant, scab-tolerant chipping potatoes for sandy irrigated soils in the Prairies).

Whether this genetic potential is realized in Canada by 2040 will depend on:

• Sustained public and private investment in breeding programs.
• Regulatory clarity around advanced breeding techniques.
• Contracting signals from processors and fresh buyers that reward resilience traits, not only cosmetic perfection and narrow fry specifications.

Smarter fields: automation, sensors and AI by 2040

Labour constraints and technological progress are already pushing the sector toward more automation.

In British Columbia, a dedicated On-Farm Technology Adoption Program is helping farmers invest in automation, robotics and digital storage controls, including computer panels and sensors to manage potato storage temperature and reduce losses from moisture and decay.

At the research and development frontier:

• A Canadian team recently described AgriScout, an autonomous electric robot equipped with RGB cameras and AI-based object detection for real-time mapping of PVY-infected potato plants in the field, generating precise infestation maps to guide roguing.
• Climate and analytics platforms are offering field-level decision tools that use weather and crop models to optimise planting dates, harvest timing, irrigation and logistics for potatoes.

By 2040, it is credible to imagine a typical Canadian commercial potato farm where:

• Autonomous or semi-autonomous equipment handles a portion of seeding, ridge cultivation, hilling and even harvest support.
• In-field sensing (drones, ground robots or smart booms) routinely monitors canopy health, nutrient status and disease risk, with alerts integrated into farm management software.
• AI-driven decision tools combine climate projections, soil maps and historical yield data to propose field-by-field cropping strategies several seasons ahead.

None of this is guaranteed. High capital costs, connectivity gaps and training needs could slow adoption. But the public and private money already flowing into on-farm automation in Canada suggests that by 2040, not using some form of robotics or AI in a commercial potato operation may be the exception rather than the rule.

Storage and processing in a carbon-constrained world

Canadian potatoes have always relied on storage. In colder and temperate zones, single-harvest production must be stored for up to 8–10 months to meet year-round demand from fresh markets and processors.

A recent systematic review on climate change and potato storage highlights several concerns:

• Warmer average temperatures and more frequent warm spells can increase respiration rates, sprouting and disease pressure in storage.
• Energy use for refrigeration, ventilation and humidity control becomes more variable and potentially higher as outside conditions swing more widely.

By 2040, if storages are upgraded in line with these findings, Canadian facilities could look very different:

• Far greater use of sensor networks and digital control systems to manage micro-zones in storages and reduce losses.
• Integration of renewable energy (solar, wind) and heat-recovery systems to reduce the carbon footprint of long-term storage.
• Tighter alignment between variety choice, field management and storage regimes to minimise physiological defects and pressure bruising before potatoes ever reach the door.

On the processing side, Canadian plants that mainly serve North American fry and chip markets may be asked to prove not only food safety and quality, but also carbon intensity per kilogram of finished product. This could drive:

• Greater interest in varieties with stable solids and colour under reduced nitrogen and water use.
• Investments in water recycling, heat recovery and lower-carbon transport within integrated potato processing hubs.

The sector’s choice is whether to treat these shifts as regulatory burdens or as opportunities to differentiate Canadian potatoes as low-loss, low-carbon, high-reliability products in global supply chains.

New products and markets: beyond fries and chips

Right now, roughly two-thirds of Canada’s potato crop goes to processing, mainly frozen fries and chips. That heavy dependence on a few product categories and a handful of multinational buyers is both a strength and a vulnerability.

On the opportunity side, research and commercial development around potato starch and by-products is accelerating:

• Work in Canada and elsewhere has shown that potato starch can be turned into bioplastic resins and films suitable for food packaging and other technical applications.
• Global market analysts now track potato-based bioplastic packaging as a distinct category, with expected growth through to 2030.

At the same time, a recent study reported that some starch-based bioplastics may pose toxicological risks similar to conventional plastics and do not always break down as quickly as advertised, raising important questions about how green such materials really are.

By 2040, Canadian potatoes could feed a more diversified mix of markets, including:

• Functional foods and ingredients (prebiotic fibres, resistant starch) aimed at gut health and glycaemic control.
• Plant-based ready meals and convenience formats that match changing household cooking patterns.
• Industrial starch streams for carefully regulated, genuinely sustainable materials and coatings, where life-cycle analysis shows an advantage over petro-based alternatives.

But capturing these markets will require rigorous science on health, environmental and safety trade-offs. The lesson from the early bioplastics wave is clear: claims will have to be backed by robust evidence if potatoes are to become a trusted feedstock for a new generation of green products.

People, skills and regional futures

Technology and climate models often dominate the conversation, but the Canadian potato story is also about people and place.

By 2040, the sector will be shaped by:

• A tighter labour market, with fewer seasonal workers willing or able to do heavy manual work in fields and storages.
• A new cohort of growers and agronomists who are as comfortable with dashboards and code as they are with digging test hills.
• Communities in PEI, New Brunswick, Manitoba, Alberta and elsewhere that must decide whether to double down on potatoes, diversify their farm base, or do both.

Regional futures may diverge:

• Atlantic Canada could either secure its role as a premium supplier of seed, table and processing potatoes to North America – or see that role erode if irrigation and drainage investments lag and climate volatility outpaces adaptation.
• Prairie regions and British Columbia might leverage irrigation infrastructure, larger farm scales and strong processor presence to become even more dominant in processing potatoes, while exploring starch, protein and industrial applications.

In all regions, the human challenge is to make potato farming and processing an attractive career path for the next generation. That means competitive margins, decent work conditions, and an industry culture that values innovation without losing its sense of community and stewardship.

Decisions between now and 2030 that will shape 2040

When you pull together climate science, production data, technology pipelines and market signals, one theme stands out: 2040 is being decided now.

Some of the most consequential decisions for Canada’s potato future include:

• Climate adaptation strategies
  How quickly do provinces, grower organisations and processors move to align varieties, rotations, water management and soil health with the climate projections already on the table?
• Investment in breeding and R&D
  Do Canada’s public and private programs have the long-term funding, data infrastructure and regulatory clarity they need to deliver the next generation of resilient potato varieties and agronomic packages?
• Water and infrastructure planning
  Will regions like PEI, New Brunswick and parts of Quebec commit to carefully designed irrigation and drainage systems that balance environmental concerns with the need to stabilise yields?
• Automation and digital adoption
  Can the sector spread the benefits of robotics, AI and sensor-based management beyond early adopters, so that a mid-sized family farm in 2035 can realistically run a partly automated, high-data potato operation?
• Value-chain diversification
  Will Canadian potatoes still be thought of primarily as fry and chip feedstock, or as a versatile raw material for food, feed and carefully vetted industrial applications?

The answers to these questions are not written in any model output. They will be shaped by contracts, capital budgets, research priorities, provincial policies and day-to-day decisions on farms and in plants.

By 2040, Canada’s potato industry could be a textbook case of how a cool-climate crop used climate change, genetics and technology to build a more resilient, diversified and lower-carbon future. Or it could be a cautionary example of what happens when a successful sector assumes yesterday’s formula will carry it through a very different tomorrow.

For now, one thing is certain: Canada’s potatoes may be a single crop, but they contain many futures. Which one emerges will depend on how boldly – and how thoughtfully – the sector chooses to act in the years ahead.

References and further reading

1. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. Potato Market Information Review 2023-2024.
   https://agriculture.canada.ca/en/sector/horticulture/reports/potato-market-information-review-2023-2024
2. Statistics Canada. No spud limit in Canada: Another record for potato production in 2024.
   https://www.statcan.gc.ca/o1/en/plus/8127-no-spud-limit-canada-another-record-potato-production-2024
3. Adekanmbi, T. et al. (2023). Assessing Future Climate Change Impacts on Potato Yields — A Case Study for Prince Edward Island, Canada. Foods 12, 1176.
   https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10048153
4. Jégo, G. et al. (2025). Potato yield projections under climate change in Canada. Agronomy Journal 117(1), e70017.
   https://stics.inrae.fr/eng/news/new-article-on-potato-yield-in-canada
5. Jennings, S.A. et al. (2020). Global Potato Yields Increase Under Climate Change With Adaptation. Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems 4, 519324.
   https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fsufs.2020.519324/full
6. Ius, D. (2025). Canadian Potato Industry Faces Weather Challenges with Industry-Wide Adaptation. Spud Smart.
   https://spudsmart.com/canadian-potato-industry-faces-weather-challenges-with-industry-wide-adaptation
7. Rahman, S.M. & Miah, M. (2024). Climate Change Impacts on Potato Storage: A Systematic Review. Foods 13, 1119.
   https://islandscholar.ca/sites/default/files/2025-02/foods-13-01119.pdf
8. Government of British Columbia. Automation, robotics help farmers strengthen food security. News release, June 13, 2024.
   https://news.gov.bc.ca/31061
9. Singh, C. et al. (2025). AgriScout: AI-powered robot for precise detection of PVY-infected potato plants. Computers and Electronics in Agriculture 238, 110781.
   (Preprint / manuscript) https://islandscholar.ca/sites/default/files/2025-10/1-s2.0-s0168169925008877-main.pdf
10. Spud Smart. Adding Value to Potato Starch. Winter 2013.
    https://spudsmart.com/adding-value-to-potato-starch-spud-smart-winter-2013
11. Sobeih, M.O. et al. (2025). Starch-Derived Bioplastics: Pioneering Sustainable Solutions for a Circular Economy. Polymers 17(4), 728.
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12028573
12. The Guardian (2025). Starch-based bioplastic may be as toxic as petroleum-based plastic, study finds.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/may/13/starch-based-bioplastic-petroleum-plastic-study

Author: Lukie Pieterse, Potato News Today
Image: Credit Potato News Today