Reporting on EU-04 market dynamics and the NEPG’s warning of oversupply risks

The North European Potato Growers (NEPG) has issued a stark warning to the sector: a record harvest in the EU-04 region (Belgium, Germany, France, and the Netherlands) risks tipping the industry into a supply crisis in 2025, with possible knock-on effects in 2026.

Historic Plantings and Output

Potato plantings for consumption in the EU-04 climbed sharply this season, expanding by nearly 40,000 hectares compared to 2024. In total, 608,000 hectares were planted – up seven percent year-on-year. Early trial digs indicate a record harvest of 27.3 million tonnes, an increase of 2.65 million tonnes (11 percent) over last year’s crop.

The growth reflects strong incentives that shaped farmer decisions in spring 2025: expanding processor demand, higher contract prices, new processing capacity, and the perception of potatoes as a relatively profitable option in a tight crop rotation.

Short-Term Surplus, Long-Term Risk

Despite the strong market signals earlier in the year, the resulting crop is already creating problems. NEPG reports that significant volumes of potatoes are bypassing storage and instead being diverted into animal feed, biogas, or compost. This raises questions about the economic sustainability of production at current levels.

With production costs unlikely to fall in 2026, the organisation warns that growers will likely scale back plantings next year. The immediate oversupply could therefore evolve into a demand crisis if processors and markets fail to absorb current volumes.

NEPG’s Call for Chain Coordination

In its statement, NEPG urged all actors in the potato value chain to strengthen planning and communication. The organisation emphasised the need for:

• Alignment of planting decisions with real processor and market demand.
• Greater transparency between growers and buyers to avoid destabilising the market.
• Consideration of long-term sustainability, including soil, water, and biodiversity management, under intensifying climate change pressures.

Outlook: Reduced Plantings Ahead

Looking ahead to 2026, NEPG anticipates a marked contraction in potato plantings across the EU-04. The scale of this reduction remains uncertain, but the signal is clear: growers are unlikely to maintain the current record levels unless markets prove capable of supporting them.

As NEPG concluded in its release, producers must now carefully weigh the economics of their production. Planting in the hope of ever-expanding demand is no longer tenable in the face of oversupply and high costs.

At a Glance – NEPG 2025 EU-04 Potato Crop

• Planted area: 608,000 ha (+7% vs. 2024)
• Production forecast: 27.3 million tonnes (+11% vs. 2024)
• Increase in volume: +2.65 million tonnes
• Key issue: Significant surplus already being diverted to feed, biogas, compost
• Outlook for 2026: Marked reduction in planted area expected

Source: North European Potato Growers (NEPG). Original press release here
Image: Credit jacqueline macou from Pixabay