USDA’s November Crop Production reported that 2024 U.S. potato production is 417.8 million hundredweight (cwt), down 5 percent from last year. Both harvested acreage (down 4 percent) and yield (down 1 percent) are expected lower year over year.

While the 2024 forecasted U.S. average yield (453 cwt per acre) would be the third highest on record (2019) and rank behind 2020 and 2023, growing conditions across the country were mixed this season. Washington, Oregon, Michigan, and Maine recorded historically high yields. In contrast, yields in Florida and Wisconsin were 10 percent and 9 percent below their previous 5-year average, respectively.

While this year’s forecast production would be the third smallest in the last decade, it is still larger than 2021 and 2022. The 2024 crop forecast follows a 2023 crop that was the largest in 5 years and was the largest year-over-year change in the top 131 potato producing States since 1996.

Highlights from 2023/24 and early 2024/25 potato marketing year (September–August) include:

State-level production

In 2024, Idaho (which produced 32 percent of the domestic crop) and Washington (24 percent) continued to rank as the top two potato-producing States. Wisconsin is expected to fall behind Oregon to rank fourth in 2024. Growers in Wisconsin reported that spring rains negatively affected yields in low-lying areas, contributing to the lowest average yield in the State (380 cwt per acre) since 2002.

Soggy weather early in the growing season also affected potato fields in parts of North Dakota and Minnesota. Only three States are forecast to have year-over-year increases in production (Michigan, Maine, and Colorado) in 2024. Both Michigan and Maine increased planted acres by 2 percent from last year, while a 2 percent decline in planted acres in Colorado was offset by a 3 percent increase in yield.

Grower prices

In 2023/24, the U.S. season average potato price ($12.3 per cwt) fell 5 percent year over year with a 29 percent decline in the average fresh market price more than offsetting an 11 percent increase in the processing price. Several large potato product processors indicated they had excess contracted potatoes in 2023/24. About two-thirds of potato sales (production less farm use, feed, loss, and shrinkage) are for processing use.

While the fresh potato price is sensitive to changes in production, the processing potato price tends to be less volatile due to grower-processor contracts signed ahead of spring planting. The season average processing potato price also tends to have smaller year-over-year downward adjustments compared to upward adjustments. In the last decade, the largest processing price decrease was less than 5 percent (2020) compared to a 20 percent year-over-year increase (2023).

Monthly fresh grower potato prices in 2023/24 ranged from $10.20 to $12.80 per cwt, well below the monthly price range during 2022/23 ($18.50–$25.90 per cwt). The monthly fresh grower prices in the first 3 months of the 2024/25 marketing year continued to be relatively flat despite a smaller crop. In September 2024, fresh grower prices exceeded $12.00 for the first time in 12 months but fell 14 percent lower in October to $10.50.

Frozen potato products and potato chip PPI

Driven by increases in the prices of potatoes used in processing, the monthly producer price index (PPI) for frozen potato production (mostly french fries) in 2023/24 trended well above 2022/23 levels. In the first 2 months of 2024/25 (September–October 2024), frozen potato products were unchanged from a year earlier and 28 percent above the same period 2 years ago.

Similarly, wholesale prices for potato chips and sticks (plain and flavored) averaged 3 percent above a year earlier and 20 percent above the September–October PPI 2 years ago. Both the frozen potato products and potato chips PPI have generally mirrored the broader processed fruits and vegetables PPI with average prices beginning to moderate in 2023/24 following a period of increased inflation.

Potato retail prices

Fresh potato retail prices from December 2023 through October 2024, as reflected by Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Consumer Price Index (CPI), have remained below the same period a year ago. The average retail price for potatoes fell seasonally for 3 consecutive months (August–October 2024) after climbing during the summer (Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI data).

Leading up to the bulk of fall potato harvest, retail sales in July–September 2024 for all potato products were 0.2 percent lower in value and 5.4 percent higher in volume (fresh-weight equivalent) compared with the same quarter last year, according to a Potatoes USA retail sales report.

In terms of grocery store potato sales (July–September 2024), potato chips accounted for 50 percent ($2.3 illion) of total sales dollars, up 3 percent from last year. Fresh potato retail sales represented 22 percent of value ($977 million) with the 5-pound consumer package size continuing to represent more than half of fresh potato sales volume (55 percent).

Russets remained the top fresh potato variety of choice with 65 percent of retail volume, followed by yellow (15 percent) and red varieties (11 percent) during the July–September 2024 quarter.

French fry trends

U.S. frozen french fry trade deficit continues in 2023/24 and early 2024/25: In terms of value and volume, frozen french fries rank No. 1 in U.S. potato imports and exports. The 2023/24 marketing year became the fifth season in a row the United States was a net frozen french fry importer by volume and the third season in a row by value.

U.S. frozen french fry export volume in 2023/24 was 1.74 billion pounds, down 2 percent from 2022/23 and the lowest volume since 2010/11. A 3 percent year-over-year increase in exports to top destinations Japan and Mexico was unable to offset double-digit declines to Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, China, Indonesia, and Australia. U.S. frozen french fry import volume reached a new high in 2023/24 of 2.7 billion pounds, up 3 percent from 2022/23.

Canada accounted for 86 percent of french fry volume followed by the European Union at 13 percent. Almost 90 percent of frozen french fry imports from the European Union came from Belgium (65 percent) and the Netherlands (24 percent).

In the first 2 months of the 2024/25 marketing year (September–October), U.S. french fry imports and exports have continued to mirror the previous season’s trend with exports lower (down 7 percent by volume and 8 percent by value) and imports higher (up 5 percent by volume and 11 percent by value) compared to the same period a year ago.

Source: USDA’s November Crop Production report | Vegetables and Pulses Outlook: December 2024 – read on p.22 – p.25 here
Cover image: Credit Henry Gartley from Pixabay
Image below: Credit USDA/ERS

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