A newly released report of a study commissioned by the National Union of Potato Producers (UNPT), FranceAgriMer, the Interprofessional Group for the Promotion of Potatoes (GIPT), the National Interprofessional Potato Committee (CNIPT) and carried out by the Ceresco firm, offers critical insights into the future of the French potato market.
The study, titled “Tendances de marché pour la pomme de terre française“, provides a comprehensive analysis of global consumption trends, production challenges, and trade projections, with a focus on the French potato industry. The findings suggest significant shifts in consumer behavior, emphasizing a growing demand for processed potato products worldwide.
Stabilizing Consumption, Rising Demand for Processed Potatoes
According to the study, global potato consumption has plateaued in recent years, with population growth outpacing production for human consumption. Between 2019 and 2021, the global per capita consumption averaged 32.9 kg annually, with processed products accounting for 27% of that figure. However, the report highlights that the demand for processed potatoes, such as frozen fries and dehydrated products, continues to rise, particularly in regions where potato production is limited.
In OECD countries, processed potatoes already dominate, accounting for over 60% of consumption. The trend is rapidly gaining momentum in Southeast Asia, where processed products now represent 40% of total potato consumption in countries like Indonesia and the Philippines. This shift in consumer preferences is expected to continue, replacing fresh potatoes with more convenient, processed alternatives.
Global Production and Yield Challenges
The report notes a slight increase in global potato production, driven primarily by yield improvements rather than an expansion in cultivated area. From 2018-2020, global potato production averaged 368 million tonnes, with the top five producers—China, India, Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S.—contributing over half of the world’s output.
Yields have steadily risen, with global averages increasing from 19.6 t/ha a decade ago to 21.9 t/ha in recent years. However, the report warns of stagnation in cultivation areas, especially in regions like Eastern Europe, where significant losses in agricultural land have occurred. In contrast, North America and the EU have maintained stable production levels, supported by high yields ranging from 38 to 50 t/ha.
Intensifying Trade and Emerging Competition
International trade in potatoes is also on the rise, with around 10% of global production exchanged either fresh or processed. The value of traded potatoes increased by 40% over the last decade, driven by the processed potato sector, which now accounts for over half of all potato trade.
France, already a leading exporter of fresh potatoes, has seen steady growth in its export volumes. The processed potato market, however, is more competitive, with emerging players like China and India rapidly increasing their export capacities. Both nations have made significant strides, with China increasing its export capabilities tenfold and India sixfold in recent years.
Despite the strong position of traditional European exporters such as Belgium and the Netherlands, these new players are reshaping the global trade landscape, particularly in Asia, where demand is soaring.
Projections for 2030: A Growing Appetite for Processed Products
Looking ahead to 2030, the report presents several scenarios for future market growth. In the most optimistic case, global consumption of processed potato products could rise by 70%, driven by population growth and changing dietary preferences. This scenario would require an additional 45 million tonnes of potatoes dedicated solely to processing.
Even in a more conservative projection, the demand for processed potatoes is expected to increase by 17%, highlighting the ongoing shift toward convenience foods. The study also points to the need for increased production capacities, particularly in emerging markets, to meet rising global demand.
Investment and Geopolitical Considerations
To keep pace with growing demand, major potato-producing nations will need to invest heavily in processing infrastructure. The report emphasizes that Europe and North America must continue to expand their production capacities to maintain their positions in the global market. At the same time, countries like India, China, and Egypt are implementing ambitious industrial policies aimed at boosting their own processing capabilities, with a focus on both domestic supply and export markets.
Geopolitical factors will also play a key role in shaping the future of the potato trade, as emerging economies seek to reduce their reliance on traditional Western exporters. Countries such as Brazil, Mexico, and Nigeria, which are experiencing rapid consumption growth but lack self-sufficiency, are likely to turn to international suppliers to meet their needs.
Conclusion: A Competitive and Evolving Market
The French potato industry is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing global demand for processed products, but it will face increasing competition from new entrants in the market. As the world’s appetite for processed potatoes continues to grow, investments in production, yield improvements, and trade partnerships will be crucial for maintaining market share.
The Tendances de marché pour la pomme de terre française report provides valuable insights for French producers and processors as they prepare for the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead. With the right strategies in place, the French potato industry can continue to thrive in an increasingly competitive global marketplace.
Source: National Union of Potato Producers (UNPT). Read the full report in the French language here
Author: This article was composed by Lukie Pieterse, Editor and Publisher of Potato News Today
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